Pig Flu

All over the news down here are images of Mexico City residents wearing face masks. City officials are handing them out for free to people riding public transit (Mexico swine flu deaths spur global epidemic fears), and pharmacies report that they’re selling at a rate of 500 an hour (Influenza Farmacias reportan ventas de 'pánico'). There is an outbreak of swine influenza.

There are reports that more than a thousand have become sick, and some 60 or more have died. City Officials have closed all the schools, as well as libraries, theaters, museums, and other public areas.

So far, most of the cases have been in the capital, though apparently some have been stricken in San Luis Potosí, Oaxaca and Baja California. There have also been eight cases reported in the US (Experts probe deadly Mexico flu).

It’s strange that the deaths have all been of young people and adults, the age group usually most resilient against influenza. This could be because children and the elderly are more often vaccinated than adults. But I like to think it’s because the most “at risk” groups are somehow more resilient naturally. I only like to think that because I belong to one of those groups now (Influenza Mujeres embarazadas, grupo vulnerable)

I haven’t heard of pig flu before, but I bet Mexico doesn’t have much of a vaccine stockpile, if such a vaccine even exists. One article says that Mexico has Tamiflu, a flu drug for the non-pig variety, that "seem[s] effective". “…Mexico has enough Tamiflu to treat 1 million people, but the medicine will be strictly controlled and handed out only by doctors” (Mexico swine flu deaths spur global epidemic fears). Or it could be 600,000 (Epidemia de influenza ataca a México: Salud). That’s really something, vaccines for 600,000 to 1 million people, when the population of Mexico City alone is probably some 22 or 23 million people.

There’s debate as to how the disease is spreading, whether it spreads from person to person or only from pigs to people. I’m betting on the former. Although one might be tempted to think that contact with pigs in the country’s capital would be rare, I bet it’s fairly common. Maybe I only think this because I get to hear the butcher across the street slaughter hogs every morning. Still, I bet we have a case of human-to-human contamination.

Do I think this is the next big global epidemic? Probably not. Yes, one is probably coming, as I’m told the experts predict. Why not? We humans are dirty, we live in dense populations, we’re very mobile, we do weird things like feed our livestock antibiotics. A global epidemic is probably in the cards. Still, every few years we have another big scare (like SARS). These episodes may be cause for concern, and for alarm, and maybe for changing the ways we do certain things, but I’m not heading for the hills yet.

Then again, it’s easier to remain calm when the reported cases are distant. In Mexico City, there is apparently a panic rush on drug stores to buy face masks (Influenza Farmacias reportan ventas de 'pánico'). So far, no cases have been reported in Guadalajara or the State of Jalisco.